Traders on Friday assigned an 86.9% probability to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its next meeting, despite Donald Trump’s longstanding demand for cheaper money and his selection of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. Jerome Powell cut rates three times in late 2025, ending on December 10, while Warsh has made no cuts since taking office on May 22 and overseeing meetings in June and July. The market view strengthened after core prices rose 0.3% in August, above economists’ 0.2% forecast, while gasoline prices jumped 3.9%. Supporters of a hike, including Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long, say inflation risks are becoming entrenched and that Warsh may avoid waiting too long to act. Critics, including Tressis chief economist Daniel Lacalle, argue that energy costs rather than overheating demand drove inflation and that higher rates would undermine employment, investment and domestic production. August data showed 162,000 jobs added, unemployment steady at 4.1% and labor-force participation rising. UBS now expects two rate increases this year, while Trump continues to seek a rate near 1%. Bitcoin and gold initially fell after the inflation data but recovered almost immediately.