Markets price 78.5% chance of Fed rate hike by September

  • Markets are pricing a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases.
  • 78.5% probability of a hike by September rose from 54% in 24 hours.
  • The September 15–16 meeting and October policy decisions remain key market milestones.

Markets are increasingly pricing a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases, including a hike at the upcoming meeting and at least three more by June. The probability of a move by the September 15–16 meeting has climbed to 78.5% from 54% 24 hours earlier, while the October probability has reached 81.5%. The effective federal funds rate is 3.63%, within the Federal Reserve’s 3.50% to 3.75% target range. The repricing follows economic indicators that market participants view as supportive of tighter monetary policy amid inflation and labor-market conditions. Attention will center on upcoming meetings, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes and statements, and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell. Current pricing is consistent with scenarios involving multiple rate hikes by mid-2026.

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