Strategy Bitcoin guide warns of 93.1% historical crash

  • Strategy published a Bitcoin guide emphasizing historical losses, custody failures and position sizing.
  • Bitcoin's deepest historical decline was 93.1% at the 2011 low.
  • Strategy held 845,050 BTC on September 7, averaging $75,412 per coin.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, published a Bitcoin guide warning investors that the asset has suffered a 93.1% decline, its deepest historical drop, and a worst one-year return of minus 83.6%. Shared over the weekend by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the guide focuses on losses, custody failures and position sizing rather than upside, arguing that long-term conviction does not prevent shorter-term losses from leverage, option decay, capital structure problems, corporate risks, counterparty failure, fees or forced liquidation. The warning is notable given Saylor's past experience at MicroStrategy, which restated three years of revenue on March 20, 2000, sending its stock down 62% from a $333 peak in one day. The SEC (U.S. securities regulator) later charged him with fraud; he paid $8.28 million in disgorgement and a $350,000 penalty without admitting wrongdoing. Strategy held 845,050 BTC on September 7 at an average cost of $75,412, while Bitcoin traded near $77,106, leaving the company barely 2% above its average purchase price and 38.8% below its October 2025 record. BeInCrypto reported that Strategy resumed buying on August 31, purchasing 4,603 BTC at an average of $80,318, but the buying resumed for only one week. The guide also lists the common and preferred stock of a BTC treasury company among investor options, securities Strategy sells while disclosing that it benefits from higher Bitcoin prices. The result is a warning about sizing for a potential 93% decline from a company whose own balance sheet is positioned for higher prices.

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