Brent crude rises 2.9% to $107.66 as Middle East tensions lift rate-hike bets

  • Oil prices climbed as Middle East frictions increased geopolitical risk premiums.
  • Brent futures rose 2.9% to $107.66 a barrel, while WTI gained 2.4% to $102.48.
  • Goldman Sachs shifted its Federal Reserve call to a 25bp hike from a hold.

Oil prices continued higher as tensions in the Middle East added to geopolitical risk premiums and raised concerns about inflation. Saudi Arabia shut a crude pipeline last week after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, while the International Energy Agency said a recovery in Middle East flows would extend into next year. The resulting energy-price surge is strengthening expectations that central banks may need higher interest rates to contain inflation. Ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, Goldman Sachs now expects a 25-basis-point increase rather than a hold. The bank said oil prices could make FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) voters, previously ambivalent about tightening, more receptive to a hike, while the Fed may hesitate to surprise markets pricing a nearly 90% chance of an increase. Front-month Brent crude futures rose 2.9% to $107.66 a barrel, and front-month WTI futures gained 2.4% to $102.48.

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