Bernstein sees Brent surging to $120-$150 amid Middle East supply risks

  • Bernstein analysts forecast Brent at $120-$150 amid continuing Middle East supply disruptions.
  • Oil flows through three regional chokepoints fell below 7 million barrels per day.
  • The Saudi East-West Pipeline remains shut after an attack late last week.

Bernstein analysts Neil Beveridge and Brian Ho said Brent crude could rise to $120-$150 per barrel as persistent Middle East disruptions constrain supply, implying roughly 40% upside from current levels. Their earlier $90 forecast for Brent in 2026 has already been overtaken by market prices, and they see little likelihood of near-term de-escalation. U.S. crude futures were up 2.39% at $102.44 per barrel, while Brent rose 2.59% to $107.32 and briefly exceeded $108. Combined flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal have fallen below 7 million barrels per day, compared with 20 million before the conflict. The shutdown of Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometer East-West Pipeline after an attack has added a potential supply gap of about 4 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts involving Iran, Oman and Gulf states have been postponed, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is projected to reach 252 million barrels by end-September. Stronger Chinese demand is tightening inventories further: August imports reached 37.9 million tonnes, while September imports are expected at about 10 million barrels per day. Bank of America sees Brent at $95-$120 if the limited conflict persists through year-end, or as high as $150 if wider fighting damages major energy infrastructure. The report says sustained higher oil prices could raise transport and corporate costs, intensify inflation and complicate central-bank decisions.

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