Polymarket puts odds of a 25-basis-point September Fed hike at 80%

2026年9月14日11:36 (38d ago)

Polymarket raised the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 80%.
80% is up 31% over one week, while unchanged-rate odds fell to 19%.
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on Sept. 16 Eastern time.

Polymarket’s prediction market currently assigns an 80% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September, up 31% over the past week. The odds of rates remaining unchanged have fallen to 19%. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet from Sept. 15 to 16 Eastern time and announce its decision on Sept. 16, or early Sept. 17 in Beijing. Market expectations broadly favor a 25-basis-point increase following last week’s inflation report.