Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has opened an 8-point lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in Kalshi’s Texas Senate election market, where the candidates were virtually tied earlier this week. Talarico is priced at 54% to win, compared with 46% for Paxton, and leads 50% to 45% in a SoCal Strategies poll reported by Newsweek. The movement comes after Paxton spoke at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas and President Donald Trump reiterated his support for Paxton, while promising to campaign for him in Texas. Paxton’s 2023 impeachment has also become a central campaign issue. Separately, Kalshi’s U.S. Senate control market gives Democrats a 55% chance of taking the chamber, against 45% for Republicans, with Times Opinion citing presidential approval, primary turnout and special-election performance as indicators favoring Democrats.