The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5% in New York trading on the 15th, reaching its highest level since July 2007, as markets sharply increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's monetary policy committee, meeting on the 16th–17th. CME's FedWatch tool put the probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase at 95%, up from 59.4% a week earlier and 33.1% a month earlier. August CPI rose 3.4% from a year earlier, core CPI increased 0.3% month over month, and nonfarm payrolls grew by 162,000 while unemployment held at 4.1%. Brent and WTI crude surpassed $100 a barrel amid armed conflict between the United States and Iran, adding to inflation concerns. The dollar strengthened, the yen weakened to the 155 range, and all three major U.S. stock indexes extended losses. Bitcoin fell 5% to $75,320, while Coinbase and Strategy dropped 10.1% and 5.4%, respectively, after the U.S. Senate rejected a motion to proceed with comprehensive crypto legislation. Markets are focused on the FOMC's policy decision, Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, as investors assess whether a hike would be a one-off or the start of sustained tightening.