Saudi oil exports threatened as pipeline halts, economy forecast to shrink 3.1%

  • Saudi Arabia faces simultaneous threats to its East-West pipeline and Bab el-Mandeb export route.
  • 3.1% is Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank's forecast for Saudi economic contraction this year.
  • Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Egypt on Sept. 16 to discuss freedom of navigation.

Saudi Arabia is facing simultaneous threats to two routes that carry crude to global markets: the East-West pipeline, which has halted after a drone attack blamed on pro-Iran militias in Iraq, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where Yemen's Houthi rebels have seized territory and pushed the Red Sea chokepoint toward possible closure. The pipeline can move as much as 7 million barrels a day to Red Sea ports without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank forecasts the Saudi economy will contract 3.1% this year, with a one-month pipeline shutdown potentially worsening the contraction to 4.5%, below zero and worse than the 2020 downturn. Brent futures settled 2.90% higher at $108.75 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 4.38% to $105.83. Kpler estimates a monthlong closure would remove 120 million barrels from global crude supply, and Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia has reduced shipments to Europe. Riyadh faces limited military and diplomatic options, including the difficulty of conducting a ground operation against the Houthis without extensive battlefield experience. Possible coordination with Israel and Egypt has been raised, while Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought military support from US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham. He visited Egypt on Sept. 16 to discuss preserving freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

本网站上的信息是使用AI生成的,我们无法保证其准确性。 请仅作为参考信息使用。