U.S. stock futures rise as traders price 92.5% odds of Fed rate hike

  • Federal Reserve officials prepared to announce an interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon.
  • Traders assigned a 92.5% probability to a quarter-point increase at 2 p.m. ET.
  • Annual CPI was 3.4% in August, down from May’s 4.2% peak.

U.S. stock futures edged higher Wednesday as traders prepared for a Federal Reserve interest rate decision widely expected to deliver the central bank’s first hike since 2023. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.4% and Dow futures added 77 points, or 0.2%. The CME FedWatch tool showed a 92.5% probability of a quarter-point increase at the 2 p.m. ET decision, while traders priced a 45% chance of another hike in October and 30% in December. The current target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision comes as inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone and energy costs rise. Annual CPI (consumer price index) was 3.4% in August, down from May’s 4.2% peak, while monthly CPI rose 0.4% as expected and core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts. U.S. diesel prices reached $6 per gallon for the first time on Friday amid supply constraints linked to conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 10-year near 5% and the 30-year at 5.374%. Brent crude fell 0.7% to $107.92 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.2% to $104.55. The Fed is also facing White House pressure to keep rates unchanged. Brent Wilsey, chief investment officer at Wilsey Asset Management, said an unchanged decision could surprise markets, undermine the Fed’s credibility and revive concerns about political pressure. U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday, while Asian markets were mixed and European equities broadly advanced.

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