Iranian forces reportedly attacked a U.S.-contracted vessel near the Strait of Hormuz with a drone and missile, according to social media reports. The waterway is a critical shipping route and has previously seen confrontations involving U.S. and Iranian vessels. The reported targeting of a commercial vessel linked to the United States represents a potential escalation from harassment toward more direct military engagement. Prediction-market pricing put the odds of U.S. military action against Iran at 17.5%, up from 16%. Observers are watching for responses from the Pentagon, President Trump, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Iranian leadership, as well as any ceasefire discussions or negotiations concerning the strait. Vera is offering live prediction-market analysis.