Bitcoin’s short-term holders, defined here as investors holding for under six months, have seen their profit cushion shrink as BTC declined while their average cost basis edged higher. The cost basis is about $71,300, and the buffer narrowed to 7% from 10% over the past week. On-chain analysis (using blockchain transaction data) also shows the exchange inflow and outflow P/L indicator has plunged about 96% since Sept. 10 and is nearing zero. Axel Adler Jr. said the reading suggests profit-taking and stop-loss selling are now closely balanced, while further declines could shift the market toward selling driven by losses.