The Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate increase has revived concerns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could climb to 6%, up from about 5%. Historical analysis by strategists at The Kobeissi Letter found that the yield rose an average of 50 basis points in the first six months after rate hikes began across tightening cycles since 1963, followed by an average increase of roughly 110 basis points over the next 12 months. A similar move would push the yield above 6% next year for the first time since August 2000, although historical outcomes ranged from increases of as much as 400 basis points to declines of up to 70 basis points. Treasury intervention led by Secretary Bessent has sought to cool rising yields but has not succeeded, the strategists said. The Fed's first rate increase since July 2023 came as persistent CPI and PPI inflation readings and higher energy costs pressured central bankers to resume tightening. Its updated projections and dot plot (interest-rate forecasts from policymakers) left open the possibility of another increase this year. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said the decision appeared to mark the start of a moderate tightening cycle rather than a one-off move. Rising Treasury yields are weighing on stock sentiment: BofA's latest fund manager survey showed global managers overweight stocks falling to 49% from 56% the previous month, while cash allocations rose to 3.9% from 3.5%, the biggest monthly increase since March of this year. A disorderly bond sell-off was identified as the leading market tail risk, even as investors remained positive on corporate earnings, artificial-intelligence investment and economic growth.