JPMorgan has abandoned its baseline forecast for how and when the Iran war will end, saying the conflict has become increasingly difficult to model. The bank initially expected oil above $100, gasoline near $5 per gallon and 10-year Treasury yields above 5% to pressure President Donald Trump into an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in June. Although the United States and Iran reached an interim deal to open the waterway that month, it quickly collapsed into renewed fighting. Oil is now above $100, the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this week and seasonally adjusted pump prices are at record highs. Diesel has risen above $6 per gallon as inventories reach record lows. JPMorgan also points to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shutdown after a drone attack launched from Iraq, advances by Iran-allied Houthi militants in the southern Red Sea and uncertainty over whether Trump will resume major combat operations against Iran. Brent crude is trading near $105 per barrel, compared with JPMorgan's estimated fair value of $90, after nearly reaching $110 earlier this week. The bank estimates that each 1 million barrels per day of lost supply adds about $4 to futures prices, implying that the market is pricing roughly 4 million bpd of additional potential losses on top of 10 million bpd already disrupted. JPMorgan says existing inventories can still cushion a prolonged disruption, with stocks down 555 million barrels rather than the 1.6 billion barrels originally forecast. For now, the bank says that remaining inventories can keep prices contained.