JP Morgan said it no longer has a clear baseline view for oil markets, marking the first time since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran that the bank has lacked one. Analysts said the conflict’s outcome cannot be modeled because economic limits the U.S. administration was expected not to cross have been breached six months into the fighting, without a clear exit strategy. Oil has risen above $100 a barrel, gasoline is at $4.37 a gallon and U.S. diesel has reached an all-time high of $6.31 a gallon ahead of winter, when seasonal demand peaks, while inventories are at record lows. JP Morgan values September Brent at about $90 a barrel versus current prices near $106, indicating that markets are pricing in further supply losses beyond the estimated 10 million barrels per day already disrupted. Risks include threats to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, attacks affecting Saudi export routes, and continued strikes on Russian refining infrastructure and Ukrainian cities. Prices have risen less sharply than expected because demand has weakened and governments and consumers have drawn less from inventories. Global crude and refined-product inventories have declined by about 555 million barrels since the conflict began, roughly one-third of JP Morgan’s earlier projection, while oil demand has run about 4.4 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels. Brent has averaged $94 since the conflict began. The International Energy Agency said last week that global supply and demand could fall further than previously expected this year, while OPEC still expects demand growth despite cutting its forecast for a fifth consecutive month and projects an increase of 380,000 barrels per day in 2026. JP Morgan said inventories in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea provide a buffer against a prolonged disruption, but warned that prices could rise later this year if Middle East outages continue and stocks fall further.