Australia’s 10-year yield falls below 5.3% as RBA hike bets rise

  • Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 5.3% as global yields declined.
  • Markets priced at least two further rate hikes by the February meeting.
  • Governor Michele Bullock warned that higher costs could make inflation more persistent.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 5.3%, retreating from highs last seen in mid-2011 as global yields declined. Lower oil prices, after Saudi Arabia worked to restore flows through its East-West pipeline, eased concerns about Middle East supply disruptions and their inflationary impact. President Trump is set to meet Gulf leaders next week. Domestically, hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock reinforced expectations for additional policy tightening. Bullock said upside inflation risks were materializing and warned that higher costs could make inflation more persistent, following similar remarks from senior RBA officials over the past month. Markets priced at least two more rate increases by the February meeting, with an approximately 87% chance of the first hike coming on September 29, compared with just one further increase priced at the start of September.

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