The Bank of England held its policy rate at 3.75% at its September meeting, but its revised inflation outlook and concerns about energy prices and Middle East tensions prompted banks to anticipate tighter policy. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3, with Catherine Mann, Megan Greene and Huw Pill supporting an immediate increase, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor took a more dovish view focused on economic slack. The BoE now expects inflation to exceed 4% in early 2027, compared with a previous projected peak of 3.2%, and sees third-quarter GDP growth at 0.4%, up from 0.1%. Barclays now forecasts 25-basis-point increases in November 2026 and February 2027, implying a peak rate of 4.25%. J.P. Morgan has adopted the same path, while Goldman Sachs sees a November increase as probable but says weaker data or lower energy costs could delay it. Morgan Stanley expects rates to remain unchanged for longer, although it acknowledges that persistently high commodity prices could require tightening. Markets are assigning a 63% probability to a November hike, based on LSEG pricing data. The BoE also reaffirmed plans to reduce Asset Purchase Facility holdings by 20 billion pounds during the current year, bringing the planned reduction to 50 billion pounds.