Global central banks signal further rate hikes as Iran war fuels inflation

  • Major central banks signaled further rate increases as energy-driven inflation risks intensified.
  • 16 of 18 Fed policymakers projected at least one more quarter-point hike by year-end.
  • The BOJ tightened Friday; the Fed raised rates Wednesday, while the ECB and BoE also shifted policy.

A potential new global interest-rate tightening cycle is emerging as major central banks respond to inflation risks linked to higher energy costs from the Iran war. The Bank of Japan tightened on Friday after rate increases by the Federal Reserve two days earlier and the European Central Bank the previous week. The Bank of England held rates this week but said persistent inflation could require further action. Policymakers are also facing pressure from markets to contain inflation expectations and long-term bond yields, which are at multidecade highs. The reversal follows the collapse of a short-lived U.S.-Iran pact that had encouraged expectations of easing hostilities and lower energy prices, while a Houthi advance along the Red Sea coast has added another threat to global oil supplies. ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic said energy prices were expected to remain elevated for longer and warned that sustained inflation could weigh on household incomes, consumer behavior and GDP. Two sources said further ECB tightening was under consideration, with a December increase more likely than an October move. At the Federal Reserve, a unanimous rate increase and comments from new U.S. central bank chief Kevin Warsh were viewed as preparing markets for further tightening; updated projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers expected at least one more quarter-percentage-point increase by year-end. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said prolonged inflationary pressure would make policy decisions more difficult, while markets priced almost four quarter-point increases over the following year despite some analysts expecting only one hike.

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