Polymarket bettors assign an 84% probability to another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase before the end of 2026, following the central bank’s September 16 decision to raise rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range. The move was the Fed’s first hike since 2023, and Polymarket traders had placed an 80%-89% probability on it before the FOMC meeting concluded. Related contracts show 57% odds of exactly two total hikes in 2026 and roughly 50%-51% odds of an October increase. The contract on another 2026 hike has generated about $38,000 in trading volume, while other Federal Reserve contracts on the platform have attracted hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market that settles contracts on Polygon, broadly aligns with CME fed funds futures and the Fed’s updated dot plots, which indicate at least one more increase before year-end. Core PCE inflation is 3.4%, above the Fed’s 2% target, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has maintained a hawkish stance. If two total hikes occur in 2026, the target range would reach about 4.00%-4.25% by year-end.