The prolonged Iran war has left J.P. Morgan unable to establish a clear base-case outlook for crude oil, with Global Head of Commodity Strategy Natasha Kaneva saying the firm does not know how the conflict will end. Oil has exceeded $100 per barrel, while U.S. gasoline and diesel prices reached $4.37 and $6.31 per gallon, respectively. J.P. Morgan’s September Brent fair-value estimate of $90 assumes daily supply losses of about 10 million barrels, but the market price was near $106, implying that traders are pricing the risk of another 4 million barrels per day being removed. The oil shock has coincided with declines in the KOSPI, echoing losses during earlier supply disruptions around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Analysts cited actual physical crude shortages, deteriorating supply conditions and possible additional disruptions through Saudi Arabia’s indirect export routes. If current disruptions continue through year-end, LS Securities expects oil could reach about $110 per barrel, while higher energy costs could keep inflation and interest rates elevated and pressure South Korean stocks, the won and foreign investment.