RBA signals inflation risks as markets price 95% chance of 4.60% rate hike

  • Michele Bullock highlighted rising inflation risks ahead of the RBA’s September 29 policy meeting.
  • 75 basis points of increases have taken Australia’s cash rate to 4.35%.
  • Markets priced a 95% chance of a hike to 4.60% next week.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said upside risks to inflation may be materialising as energy prices remain high and excess demand persists domestically. She said unemployment of 4.5% to 5.0% could help contain inflation, implying that some increase from the current 4.5% level might be needed. Bullock said she was highlighting inflation risks rather than signaling the outcome of the nine-member policy board’s September 29 meeting. The risks include the Middle East conflict and its effect on energy prices, as well as domestic demand. Earlier Tuesday, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said rates might need to rise for a fourth time this year. The RBA has lifted its cash rate by 75 basis points since February to 4.35%, while core inflation (underlying price growth excluding volatile items) remains 3.6%, above the 2% to 3% target range. Markets price a 95% chance of a hike to 4.60% next week and expect rates to peak at 4.85% early next year.

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