Brent crude falls for sixth day as odds of September record hit 0.5%

  • Brent crude prices fell for a sixth consecutive day.
  • 0.5% is the current prediction-market probability of a new high by September 30.
  • Markets assign 10.5% odds to a new high by December 31.

Brent crude prices have declined for six consecutive days, putting the benchmark on course for its longest losing streak in more than a year. Futures have traded around $98 to $99 a barrel, down from above $100 earlier this month. Prediction-market pricing now assigns a 0.5% chance that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by September 30, down from 2% a week ago. The probability rises to 10.5% for December 31, suggesting markets see a greater chance of a year-end catalyst than an immediate surge. The slide appears linked partly to cautious optimism over Iran-U.S. relations, although any resolution or escalation could affect global oil supplies and prices. Investors are also watching OPEC and the IEA (International Energy Agency) for policy changes or forecasts, alongside broader geopolitical stability in the Middle East.

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