Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, warned that any new U.S. military action against Iran could spread to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The warning adds uncertainty to U.S.-Iran relations as negotiations continue over restoring normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction-market pricing for a U.S.-Iran Hormuz agreement by September 30 has fallen to 5.5% YES, indicating that participants see a lower chance of a deal by the deadline. Markets are watching statements from President Donald J. Trump and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with military movements, diplomatic talks, possible mediation by Oman and shipping data through the Strait of Hormuz. These developments could affect how markets assess the prospects for an agreement by the end of September. Vera is offering live prediction-market analysis and invites users to sign up.