An unnamed Israeli source told Saudi outlet Al Hadath that further military action against Iran is likely and that strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities are "a matter of time." The source said Israel is monitoring Tehran’s efforts to strengthen its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and could act independently if necessary, without U.S. support. Israel and Iran have exchanged military action intermittently since 2024, adding to strains on diplomacy between Washington and Tehran. Prediction markets have responded by lowering the implied probability that reconstruction funding for Iran would be included in a potential U.S.-Iran agreement in 2026. The pricing reflects concern that renewed hostilities could weaken negotiations, amid stalled diplomacy and no substantial agreement in sight. Observers are expected to watch official U.S. and Iranian responses, military posturing and diplomatic contacts. Confirmation of increased Iranian nuclear activity or a formal Israeli announcement of military operations could further reduce market confidence in a deal being reached within 2026.