Fastly shares fall 8.40% as analyst questions AI traffic upside

  • Fastly shares traded lower Thursday after Wednesday's analyst-driven advance reversed.
  • 8.40%: Fastly shares traded at $27.16, according to Benzinga Pro data.
  • DA Davidson kept Neutral while BofA Securities maintained Underperform.

Fastly shares traded lower Thursday after reversing the previous session's gain, when DA Davidson analyst Rudy Kessinger raised the stock's price forecast following the company's recent investor day. Kessinger reaffirmed a Neutral rating and increased the forecast to $23 from $21, while BofA Securities analyst Tal Liani maintained an Underperform rating and lifted his forecast to $22 from $20. Kessinger expects Muse and other AI agents to add some traffic to Fastly, but questions whether the increase will materially boost near-term revenue. Fastly generated 73% of its second-quarter revenue from CDN bytes, or content delivery network data traffic. Using assumptions of 5 MB per browser task and five daily requests, Kessinger estimated that one Muse user would consume about 9 GB annually. At 1 billion daily active users, equal to roughly 28% of total Meta daily active users, annual traffic would reach about 9,125 PB. Based on an investor day customer paying more than $50 million for 28,000 PB, the potential revenue to Fastly would be about $16.3 million if it handled all scaled Muse traffic. Kessinger said the estimate is rough and that some AI traffic could replace human activity rather than add to total demand; even the full opportunity would represent only about 2% of consensus CY2026 Fastly revenue. He sees potential benefits for Fastly's security business because those products monetize requests rather than bytes, although the company has not yet seen security customers renew early at higher request tiers because of AI. WAF, Bot Management and DDoS are mature markets, the analyst said, with growth largely dependent on competitive displacement. Fastly shares were down 8.40% at $27.16 at publication, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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