Indian rupee seen near 96 per dollar as global yields pressure markets

  • Indian rupee traders expect the currency to remain under pressure on Friday.
  • 96 per dollar was identified as a key psychological support level for the rupee.
  • Reserve Bank of India interventions have limited volatility during the currency’s monthly decline.

The Indian rupee is expected to remain under pressure on Friday, trading near 96 per dollar as markets assess possible U.S.-Iran de-escalation, higher global bond yields and oil-price volatility. The currency closed at 95.9550 in the previous session. Traders said the rupee could weaken further without intervention from the Reserve Bank of India, whose actions have limited volatility. Brent crude was down 0.5% at $106 a barrel, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004 after Federal Reserve officials indicated that further rate increases may be needed to contain inflation. Markets were pricing a nearly 70% chance of an October Fed hike through CME's FedWatch tool, helping lift the dollar index almost 2% so far this month. ANZ expects the rupee to reach 96.50 by December and 98.30 by the end of next year, while viewing orderly depreciation as preferable to aggressive defense of the exchange rate.

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