Fed officials warn inflation remains unresolved as October rate-hike odds reach 64.2%

  • Federal Reserve officials warned that unresolved inflation risks require continued restrictive policy.
  • 64.2% probability of a 25-basis-point hike is priced for October's Federal Reserve meeting.
  • Hammack, Schmid and Williams cited inflation persistence, debt levels and supply shocks.

Multiple Federal Reserve officials delivered coordinated hawkish warnings, saying inflation risks remain unresolved and restrictive monetary policy should continue. Cleveland Fed President Hammack pointed to elevated inflation persisting for five years and the risk that price expectations could become entrenched. Kansas City Fed President Schmid said the central bank has not solved the inflation problem and warned about extreme U.S. debt levels. New York Fed President Williams said repeated supply shocks could keep medium- and long-term price pressures elevated. Markets have responded by raising expectations for tighter policy, with CME FedWatch now showing a 64.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October meeting.

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