Nike shares have fallen 44% in 2026 as weaker demand in China and stronger competition, including from On Holding, weigh on the athletic-apparel company. Jefferies analyst Randal Konik maintained a Buy rating and a $75 price target, implying potential gains of more than 100% from Friday’s close of $35.75. Nike is due to report first-quarter fiscal 2027 results before Thursday’s opening bell. Konik forecasts earnings per share of 48 cents and revenue of $11.5 billion, above consensus estimates of 44 cents and $11.3 billion. Jefferies expects North American operations and wholesale channels to stabilize, supported by improved inventory management and tighter costs. It projects selling, general and administrative expenses at 34.5% of sales, down from 35.3%, and EBIT margin at 7.6%, up from 7.1%. Nike’s fourth-quarter gross margin declined 10 basis points excluding tariff effects, compared with management’s guidance for a 25-to-75-basis-point contraction. Jefferies attributed the performance to less promotional activity, lower reserves and fewer North American order cancellations. Challenges remain in Direct-to-Consumer channels, Europe, China and key categories such as Classics, Sportswear and Jordan. Konik considers the November 16-17 investor day more consequential than the immediate earnings release, with incoming CFO David Denton expected to present updated fiscal 2027 and 2028 targets. Nike was removed from the S&P 100 on September 21, while speculation has grown over its possible removal from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Wall Street views the stock unevenly: BofA Securities downgraded it to Underperform with a $30 target, BTIG raised its target to $55 while retaining Buy, and Stifel cut its target to $40 and lowered its fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates.