A leading election prognosticator says Democrats are virtually certain to regain control of the House in the upcoming midterm election, citing consistently favorable polling and President Donald Trump's approval rating of about 38%. Emerson found that 78% of Democrats were very excited about voting, compared with 66% of Republicans and 70% of independents. The Cook Political Report rates 22 House races as toss-ups, including 15 held by Republicans; Democrats need a net gain of three seats for control. The Senate is rated a true toss-up, with seven competitive races, five held by Republicans, and Democrats needing four net gains. Trump's approval has remained low amid stalled negotiations to end the Iran war, higher gas prices, an escalating trade conflict with Canada and unpopular tariffs. Inflation rose from 2.4% over 12 months in January to 3.4% last month, while the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023 earlier this month. Trump has urged voters to act as though he is on the ballot, dismissed affordability concerns and directed Republicans to emphasize immigration-related policies, voter identification, prescription prices, tax cuts and the elimination of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.