Germany’s 10-year Bund yield holds above 3.6% near 2009 high

  • Germany’s Bund yield stabilized above 3.6% as investors assessed inflation and monetary-policy signals.
  • Eurozone markets priced up to four additional ECB rate hikes after two summer increases.
  • Spain’s harmonized inflation reached 5% in September, its highest level in three years.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield stabilized above 3.6%, near its highest level since June 2009, as investors assessed ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments, flash inflation data and elevated oil prices. Lagarde said the recent inflation surge has not yet produced significant second-round effects across the euro area, supporting a measured policy response. Eurozone inflation is already above 3% and could approach 4% by year-end, prompting markets to price in up to four additional rate increases over the next year after two hikes during the summer. Economists broadly expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged at its October 29 meeting and resume tightening in December, when updated economic projections are scheduled. Spain’s harmonized inflation rate reached 5% in September, its highest level in three years and well above the ECB’s 2% target. Brent crude also remained elevated as negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz stalled.

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