Sterling rises as revised UK growth strengthens BoE hike bets

  • Sterling rose after revised UK growth reinforced expectations for a Bank of England rate increase.
  • UK output grew 0.5% in the second quarter, above the initial 0.4% estimate.
  • Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s October budget is set to shape the next market focus.

Sterling climbed to a six-week high against the euro and recovered against the dollar after UK data showed second-quarter growth was revised to 0.5% from 0.4%. Markets priced around 33 basis points of Bank of England tightening by year-end and more than 100 basis points by the end of 2027, although analysts broadly expect a more limited policy response. The pound also benefited against the dollar after Federal Reserve policymaker John Williams said there was no need for urgency in raising rates, shifting market expectations toward a December move rather than October. Sterling remains on course for its biggest monthly loss in nearly a year against the dollar, while it was set for modest monthly and quarterly gains against the euro. Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first budget in October is expected to be a key market driver, after he said the UK should consider future relationship options with the European Union, including ultimately rejoining the bloc.

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