Crude oil prices were set for a modest weekly decline after reports of a strong rebound in oil flows from the Persian Gulf outweighed news of additional U.S. troops moving to the Middle East and China’s Thursday decision to halt fuel exports this month. Brent crude was trading at $102.24 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $92.62. Both benchmarks posted strong gains in September, although they began October lower. Analysts said renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf could restore upward pressure on prices. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, described the market as balancing healthier Saudi exports against another U.S. aircraft carrier reportedly heading toward the Gulf and China’s refined-product export curbs. David Doherty, Head of Natural Resources at BNEF, said the US-Israeli war on Iran was difficult to predict and modeled early November, following the US midterm elections, as the main scenario for easing. He also said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (key oil shipping chokepoint) and the US blockade of Iran were highly likely to persist in some form into the new year, delaying the return of flows to normal. President Trump said Iran must either sign a very fair deal or cease to exist, after reports that a third aircraft carrier and about 10,000 troops were heading to the Middle East. The article was written by Irina Slav for Oilprice.com and included related stories on Saudi Arabia restarting Red Sea crude loadings, India seeking to boost exploration as the Hormuz crisis threatens supply, and five energy ETFs that have soared in 2026. Oilprice Intelligence promoted a free twice-weekly newsletter offering geopolitical intelligence, inventory data and market analysis, alongside a $389 premium energy-intelligence offer for subscribers and a claim of more than 400,000 readers.