Polymarket odds of October Fed rate cut fall to 25%

  • Polymarket traders reduced bets on an October quarter-point Fed rate cut.
  • Polymarket cut cut odds to 25% from 67% over one week.
  • The FOMC statement after its Oct. 28 meeting will determine Polymarket's outcome.

Cryptocurrency bettors have sharply reduced the probability of an October quarter-point rate cut by the Kevin Warsh-led Fed. On Polygon-based Polymarket, the odds fell to 25% from 67% a week earlier, while the probability of unchanged rates rose to 75% from 33%. More than $22 million has been wagered on the outcome, which will be resolved using the Federal Open Market Committee's statement after its Oct. 28 meeting. Kalshi traders also cut the probability of a rate hike to 27% from 64%, while the CME FedWatch tracker showed a similar decline to 28% from 64%. The market repricing followed comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson that policymakers had time to gather more information and did not need to act urgently. Oliver Rust, Head of Data at blockchain-based data tracing platform Truflation, said another rate hike was difficult to justify as underlying inflation cooled. August personal consumption expenditures price index inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month, below the 0.4% economist consensus, while headline PCE inflation remained at 3.4%, matching July's revised reading and below the 3.7% consensus.

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