Some 40 elections worldwide put financial markets in focus

  • Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Flavio Bolsonaro in a closely watched election.
  • Capital Economics sees a possible 10% to 20% equity gain under a Flavio victory.
  • Israel, the United States and New Zealand are among the other elections affecting markets.

Voters in Brazil, Israel, the United States and New Zealand are heading toward elections that could influence currencies, bond markets, fiscal policy and economic expectations. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro are running neck-and-neck, with an October 25 runoff likely. Investors broadly support Brazil’s outlook, but rising spending and fiscal risks remain central concerns. Capital Economics said a Flavio win could lift equities by 10% to 20% and lower local-currency bond yields, while a Lula victory could weigh on equities. Israel’s October 27 Knesset (Israel’s 120-seat parliament) election could produce another coalition government, while the United States’ November 3 midterms will determine control of Congress and affect policy on tariffs, energy prices and the Iran war. New Zealand’s November 7 election could challenge the governing coalition and raise questions over central-bank policy. Earlier elections in Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Hungary, Colombia and Peru have already affected fiscal plans, government stability, currencies and investor sentiment.

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