Kalshi prices an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its October meeting, based on market pricing as of October 2, 2026. The contract assigns a 16% probability to a 25-basis-point increase and about 1% to a larger hike, with trading volume reaching $7,233,598. The repricing followed a September employment report showing nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, below the 84,000 consensus forecast, while unemployment increased to 4.2%. The rise in unemployment was attributed largely to labor-force expansion, while average hourly earnings growth slowed to its lowest annual rate since May 2021. Equity indexes advanced after the data, as traders viewed weaker hiring and moderating wage pressures as reducing the near-term likelihood of further monetary tightening. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75%-4.00%, the first increase since July 2023. The October FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, with the rate decision and press conference set for October 28.