Polymarket更新特朗普总统美联储主席提名人赔率

Polymarket更新特朗普总统美联储主席提名人赔率

Kalshi市场赔率显示凯文·沃什略微领先凯文·哈塞特,此前特朗普总统表示已选定美联储主席提名人但未透露候选人姓名。

事实核查
The statement is strongly supported by high-authority primary sources. The core of the claim is directly confirmed by evidence from the Polymarket platform itself. A primary source from Polymarket lists a specific prediction market titled "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?". This directly establishes the existence of the relevant market. Another primary source, a user profile on the platform, shows trading activity in this exact market. Crucially, it shows the price for the "No" outcome at 98¢, which on Polymarket translates directly to a 98% probability. The "No" outcome for the question "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?" is functionally equivalent to the statement's claim that "no new Fed Chair will be announced by the end of 2025." Additional sources, including news articles and other pages on the Polymarket site, corroborate that the platform is actively used for predictions regarding the next Fed Chair. There is no conflicting evidence among the provided sources.
摘要

1月9日,特朗普总统告诉《纽约时报》他已决定下任美联储主席人选,但未透露提名人。Kalshi预测市场数据显示凯文·沃什的赔率为41%,凯文·哈塞特为39%,克里斯托弗·沃勒为12%。这与此前Polymarket的数据基本一致,反映出交易员在官方宣布前的持续不确定性。

术语与概念
  • Federal Reserve Chair: 美国中央银行系统负责人,负责指导货币政策。
  • Prediction Market: 参与者交易与未来事件相关的合约的市场,价格反映集体预期。