The prediction market Kalshi (U.S.-regulated event trading platform) shows traders assigning a 64% probability that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before September.
Kalshi traders are pricing a 64% chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before September. The figure reflects market-based expectations on Kalshi (U.S.-regulated event trading platform), where participants trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy shipping corridor, so expectations around normal traffic conditions are closely watched by markets assessing geopolitical and trade disruption risks.