US small business hiring intentions fall to 9%, lowest since May 2020
The share of owners planning to hire over the next three months has halved in six months and now matches levels seen during the 2001 recession.
Fact Check
The core factual claim — that net 9% of US small business owners plan to hire over the next three months, the lowest since May 2020 — is directly confirmed by the primary NFIB May 2026 Jobs Report (PDF) and NFIB's June 4, 2026 press release, and independently corroborated by Bloomberg. NFIB explicitly states hiring plans fell 4 points to net 9%, lowest since May 2020. The 'halved in six months' characterization is consistent with the declining trend NFIB describes (third consecutive monthly drop in the employment index; well below the 11% historical average). The 2001 recession comparison is interpretive commentary by The Kobeissi Letter, but does not contradict the verified core number.
Summary
US small business hiring intentions have dropped sharply, with just 9% of small business owners saying they plan to hire over the next three months. That is the lowest reading since May 2020, and the share has halved over the last six months. The level is now in line with readings seen during the 2001 recession, pointing to a marked deterioration in labor demand among smaller firms, which are often watched as an early gauge of broader economic momentum.
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