Polymarket and Kalshi show Spain and France near 16% implied win odds ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while a separate Polymarket market gives Europe a 72% chance of producing the champion.
Prediction markets tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup have reached multibillion-dollar scale before the June 11 opening match, with traders on Polymarket and Kalshi nearly split between Spain and France as tournament favorites at about 16% implied win odds. Polymarket’s winner market has generated roughly $2 billion in volume and Kalshi’s has crossed $100 million, underscoring sports as a major growth area for event-contract platforms. Separately, Odaily reported that wallet 0xc6a71cad90060abc0c1ff8ebd6f6a8fc02ed504e spent more than $150,000 buying 300,000 shares each on France, Spain, England and Argentina, indicating a diversified position across several top contenders rather than a single outright pick. In another Polymarket market, Europe was assigned a 72% probability of producing the 2026 champion, compared with 22% for South America and 3% each for Africa, Asia, and North America, with contracts set to resolve by the winner’s continent or as “Other” if the tournament is canceled, postponed beyond Dec. 31, 2026, or no official champion is declared by then.