The bank agreed near-term co-packaged optics volumes may undershoot expectations, but said supply-chain checks support second-half 2026 timing for 800V cabinets rather than a delay to 2028.
Morgan Stanley said near-term co-packaged optics, or CPO, volumes may fall short of market expectations, aligning with SemiAnalysis on weaker 2027 demand but disputing the view that NVIDIA’s 800V DC roadmap has slipped to 2028. The bank said 2027 global optical-engine shipments are likely to reach only 6 million to 7 million, versus broader market expectations of 20 million to 30 million. At the same time, it said supply-chain checks indicate 800V cabinets remain on track for the second half of 2026, with Nvidia targeting Q3 2026 readiness and Delta expected to deliver first products in Q4 2026. The update sharpens a split view on AI data-center infrastructure: optics demand may develop more slowly than hoped, while higher-voltage power systems may still arrive on the earlier timetable.