July pricing points to an 85.8% chance of no change, alongside smaller probabilities of a 25 basis point hike or cut.
CME FedWatch pricing shows markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged through June, with a 98.2% probability of no move and a 1.8% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. For July, expectations are still centered on a hold, though the range of outcomes widens: the tool shows an 85.8% chance of no change, a 12.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike, and a 1.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The readings suggest traders see near-term policy stability, while keeping open the possibility of a modest adjustment later in the summer.