Bernstein sees Robinhood prediction-market revenue rising to $586 million in 2026

Kalshi recorded a weekly record $5.1 billion in FIFA World Cup trading, while Bernstein said the surge supports a stronger retail tailwind for Robinhood’s prediction-market business.

Summary

Kalshi posted a weekly record $5.1 billion in trading volume during the first week of the FIFA World Cup, Bloomberg reported, as Bernstein pointed to surging World Cup activity as evidence of growing retail demand in prediction markets. Bernstein said World Cup prediction-market trading rose from $2.2 billion on June 11 to a record $4.8 billion on June 12, above the last Super Bowl’s $1.4 billion, and forecast Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue will increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. The firm also expects World Cup betting to contribute more than $3 billion and lift overall industry consumer volume by $5 billion to $10 billion.

Terms & Concepts
  • prediction market: Platform or venue for trading on the outcomes of real-world events.
  • notional trading: Total face value of traded contracts.
  • consumer volume: Total retail trading activity in a market.