PA Beacon said large pre-match positions produced about -2.0% ROI, with “No” bets outperforming “Yes” as draws undercut favored narratives and strong-team consensus.
Large pre-match bets on Polymarket failed to beat the uncertainty of World Cup group-stage results. PA Beacon said that across 20 completed group matches, the amount-weighted hit rate for large pre-match buys on the prediction market was just 48.5%, with overall return on investment at about -2.0%. The data also showed “No” positions outperformed “Yes” bets, suggesting consensus views around favorites and dominant storylines were more vulnerable when matches ended in draws.