Three wallets make $24.25M on Polymarket World Cup bets, raising oversight questions

Lookonchain said the three wallets sent their profits to the same Binance deposit address after a string of winning World Cup bets, intensifying scrutiny of trading patterns on prediction markets.

Summary

Three wallets generated $24.25 million in profit from World Cup bets on Polymarket before routing the proceeds to the same Binance deposit address, according to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, a pattern that has raised fresh questions about whether the accounts were linked. Lookonchain identified the wallets as mintblade, GRIMDRIP and EndlessFate, saying they recorded 13 winning positions across 16 settled bets before halting trading and withdrawing their remaining funds. The shared deposit route does not establish who controlled the accounts or whether any nonpublic information was used, but it has drawn attention as prediction markets swell in size during the World Cup. More than $5 billion had been traded across Polymarket’s international exchange and Kalshi during the tournament’s opening stages, with Polymarket’s market on the tournament winner alone reaching about $3 billion in cumulative volume. The episode adds to broader debate over how prediction markets are monitored as regulators and platforms weigh concerns that traders could benefit from confidential or otherwise unevenly distributed information.

Terms & Concepts
  • Polymarket: A prediction market where users trade contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events.
  • prediction markets: Markets where traders buy and sell contracts that settle based on event outcomes, with prices often read as implied probabilities.
  • wallets: Blockchain addresses used to hold and transfer digital assets and interact with on-chain applications.