Before the June 27 Group I match, one Polymarket trader staked more than $308,000 on Norway not beating France and the game not ending 3-3; after France’s 4-1 win, France led the title market.
France moved to the top of Polymarket’s “2026 World Cup Champion” market at an implied 22% after beating Norway 4-1 in the third round of Group I on June 27. Before kickoff, a trader previously reported to have made more than $14.9 million had committed over $308,000 to two match-outcome positions: more than $172,000 on Norway not beating France at an average entry price of 80.3 cents, and $136,000 on France vs. Norway not ending 3-3 at 98 cents. The pre-match positions had shown small floating losses before settlement. Separately, PPP prediction market monitoring said a smart-money address, 0x84cfffc3f16dcc353094de30d4a45226eccd2f63, bought more than $106,000 of France-to-win-the-2026-World-Cup shares at an average 18.5 cents and was sitting on about $14,909 in unrealized profit after the result. Dembele scored a first-half hat trick, and France moved ahead of Argentina at 18% and Spain at 12% on the prediction platform.