Galaxy Research cuts 2026 CLARITY Act passage odds as senators push July vote

Galaxy Research lowered its 2026 estimate while Polymarket pricing fell to 48% by year-end, as Senate negotiators race to resolve Section 604, ethics and other disputes before the August recess.

24d ago

Fact Check

Multiple independent and primary sources confirm the claim. The original Galaxy Research statement by Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) on June 26, 2026 and reporting by The Block confirm odds were cut from 60% to 50%. Cryptonews (the linked source) and Yahoo Finance corroborate the figures and the cited Senate calendar concerns, including the Senate adjournment until July 13 and a possible late-July/early-August floor vote, matching the claim's specific details about bipartisan staff, White House, and industry efforts to unify drafts and resolve ethics and AML issues. All sources are consistent.

Summary

Galaxy Research cut its estimate that the U.S. CLARITY Act will complete the legislative process in 2026 to 50% from 60% three weeks earlier, while Polymarket showed implied odds of the bill becoming law by year-end at 48%, down from 70%. The weaker outlook reflects the Senate's compressed timetable, unresolved committee text, no scheduled floor vote and disputes over Section 604's DeFi exemption, ethics provisions and other issues. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Tim Scott have called for Senate action in July, but TD Cowen and Jefferies said the bill's path remains narrow and uncertainty could add to digital-asset market volatility; prediction-market prices reflect trader sentiment rather than any official legislative outcome.

Terms & Concepts

CLARITY Act: A proposed U.S. crypto market-structure bill intended to clarify how digital assets are regulated and traded.
Section 604: A disputed provision in the CLARITY Act, including a DeFi-related exemption that has drawn pushback from law enforcement groups.
Polymarket: A prediction market platform where contract prices imply odds of event outcomes.