Galaxy Research cut its estimate that the U.S. CLARITY Act will complete the legislative process in 2026 to 50% from 60% three weeks earlier, while Polymarket showed implied odds of the bill becoming law by year-end at 48%, down from 70%. The weaker outlook reflects the Senate's compressed timetable, unresolved committee text, no scheduled floor vote and disputes over Section 604's DeFi exemption, ethics provisions and other issues. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Tim Scott have called for Senate action in July, but TD Cowen and Jefferies said the bill's path remains narrow and uncertainty could add to digital-asset market volatility; prediction-market prices reflect trader sentiment rather than any official legislative outcome.