Arkham launches Elo-style ratings for prediction market traders

The system now highlights mainly Polymarket accounts and ranks traders by forecasting accuracy rather than profit and loss, with early leaderboard results showing large gaps in win rates and activity.

Summary

Arkham has introduced an Elo/MMR-style ranking system for prediction market traders that scores users on forecasting accuracy and the difficulty of the calls they get right, rather than on profit and loss. The rankings currently focus mainly on Polymarket traders, adding a competitive layer to event-based trading that aims to separate forecasting skill from returns alone. Early leaderboard data cited by The Block showed top-ranked trader GardenerCx using a "5-minute crypto up/down market" strategy to post a 64.3% win rate across 2,644 bets.

Terms & Concepts
  • Elo/MMR-style ranking system: A scoring method that rates users based on performance relative to expected outcomes, commonly used to rank competitive players.
  • prediction market: A market where participants trade on the likely outcome of future events.
  • Polymarket: A prediction market platform where users place bets on event outcomes.