Kevin Warsh declines to signal next Fed rate move, reiterates 2% inflation target

At the ECB’s Sintra forum, the Fed chair said policymakers will watch incoming data, noted easing inflation risks in recent weeks, and warned the central bank will not tolerate inflation remaining above 2%.

22d ago

Fact Check

The ECB's official Forum on Central Banking 2026 page directly confirms Kevin Warsh on the Policy Panel on 1 July 2026 alongside leading central bankers Lagarde, Bailey, and Macklem, and CNBC live updates corroborate the same lineup and framing. Reuters confirms May core PCE at 3.4% year-over-year and markets pricing roughly an 80% chance of a September Fed hike (with July expected to hold). Every factual element of the headline—the panel appearance, the 3.4% core PCE, and the September hike odds—is supported by authoritative primary and primary-news sources.

Summary

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at the European Central Bank’s Sintra forum on July 1 that he was not prepared to say whether the Fed would raise rates at its next meeting, urging investors to focus on incoming economic data rather than forward guidance. He said inflation expectations and inflation risks had declined in recent weeks, but reaffirmed that the Fed remains committed to returning inflation to its 2% target and that anyone expecting tolerance for inflation above that level “will be disappointed.” His remarks came after U.S. core PCE inflation rose to 3.4% in May, while market pricing shifted from earlier expectations of about an 80% chance of a September hike to below 50% odds of a first hike in July, according to the reports.

Terms & Concepts

forward guidance: Central bank communication about the likely future path of monetary policy.
core PCE: A U.S. inflation measure that excludes food and energy prices.
inflation expectations: Forecasts for future price growth.