Updated probabilities cited by Odaily show markets still favor no July move, while September and October pricing points to rising odds of one or more 25-basis-point hikes.
Markets are pricing a 68.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in July, with a 31.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Odaily. By September, probabilities shift to 35.7% for no change, 49.2% for a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and 15.1% for 50 basis points. By October, the distribution stands at 27.8% for no change, 46.2% for 25 basis points, 22.6% for 50 basis points and 3.3% for 75 basis points, indicating markets are still leaning toward tighter policy later in the year.