Darkfost says the True Market Mean is near $76,700 and acting as resistance, while another on-chain valuation ratio remains above levels tied to past bear-market extremes.
Bitcoin’s more active investor base is sitting on an average unrealized loss of roughly 20%, based on Darkfost’s reading of the True Market Mean, an on-chain valuation measure that strips out long-dormant coins. The analyst said that level is around $76,700 and is currently acting as resistance, suggesting active market participants remain under pressure. Darkfost also said the active value to investor value ratio is about 0.8, still above the 0.5-0.6 band associated in prior cycles with deeper bear-market capitulation. Taken together, the indicators suggest stress among active holders, but not yet the kind of extreme undervaluation seen at previous cycle lows.